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Corn exports exceeded the trade expectation in this week’s export report.  USDA reports corn exports for week of April 18^th at 1.2 Million Metic Tons; trade estimates ranged from 800,000 to 1.1 Million MT.  Soybeans were below the estimates of 900,000 to 1.1 Million being reported at 617,000 MT.  Wheat was reported at 230,000 MT also below expectations. 

In yesterday’s Cold Storage Report released by the USDA, inventories of beef, pork and chicken were reported to show declines in comparison to the 2008 inventories. 

Pork:  593.2 million pounds – 9.8% lower than March 2008 and 12.1% higher than the 5-year average.

Beef:  422.5 million pounds – 1% less than 2008 and 1.7% below the 5-year average.

Chicken:  634.7 million pounds – 17% less than last year and 9.6% lower than it’s 5-year average.

Turkey:  508 million pounds – Year over year that inventory was up 18.6% and up 22.6% compared to it’s 5 year average.

Declines in production numbers; decent exports – especially in the chicken sector and lack of available funds for maintaining higher inventories were noted for the sharp year to year declines.   

In Monday’ Crop Progress Report; the Corn Crop is reported to be 5% Planted verses 2% Last Week and a 5-year average of 14%.  Notably slow progress was reported in Missouri at 7% planted vs. their 5-year average of 42%; Illinois at 1% vs.  a 5 year average of 23%; Indiana reported no progress again this week with their 5-year average at 9%;  and Kansas at 8% planted vs. a 5-year average of 23%.   In the Spring Wheat Report; the crop is 6% planted nationally; compared to the 5 year average of 19%.  North Dakota reported 0% planted; South Dakota at 11%; Minnesota at 4%; and Montana at 6%; this number will be followed closely next week, with many producers willing to forego spring wheat acres is not able to plant them before May 1^st.

In Friday’s USDA April Cattle on Feed Report:  The On Feed number as of April 1^st was reported at 11.152 Million head, 95.4% vs April 2008.  This is the smallest April 1^st On Feed number since 2005.  Placements were reported at 1.802 Million head: 103.8% vs 2008.  The report showed we are placing heavier cattle than we did a year ago, with cattle weighing 700+ up over 8% vs. last year.   Marketing’s were at 1.828 million head or 99.2% vs. 2008.   The report is viewed as neutral overall to the market, but the heavier placements may put some pressure on the deferred months. 

The USDA will release its April Cattle on Feed Report Friday afternoon.  Trade estimates are:

Report Expectations         Avg. Trade Guess             Estimate Ranges

On Feed                                    95.6%                           95% to 97.5%

Placements                              103.8%                          95.6% to 112.3%

Marketings                                 99.2%                         97.0% to 100.4%

In this morning's report the USDA lowered soybean ending stocks to 165 million bushels, down from last's month's estimate of 185.  Ending stocks this time last year were 205.  Corn ending stocks were also reduced from 1740 to 1700.  The World Soybean stocks were also reduced, with the USDA reducing the Argentina crop from 43MMT to 39MMT.   

USDA to release it’s Crop Production and WADSE report at 730am Tomorrow morning.

Report                USDA        Avg. Trade       Trade 

Expectations     February     Estimate         Ranges

Corn                  1,740            1,717         1,675 – 1,765

Soybeans           185              167             101 – 185

Wheat                712              696              666 – 727

Planting Intentions Report:

Corn 85 mill.   ave guess 84.5 mill.

Beans 76 mill.   ave guess 79 mill.

Stocks Report:

Corn 6.95 bill.    ave guess 7 bill.

Beans 1.3 bill.    ave guess 1.32 bill

In Friday's USDA Hog and Pig Report....inventory numbers were down with All Hogs & Pigs reported at 65.398 down 3% from last year.  Breeding inventories were also down at 6.011 also down 3% from 2008, but Liter size was up 103%, giving us a net overall decline in production of about 1 1/2%.  Marketings were down 3% also at 59.378.

USDA is slated to release the March Planting Intentions report and Grain Stock report at 730 tomorrow morning.  Estimates for this reports:

PLANTING INTENTIONS

Crop                        2008                          2009

                      Acres                     Estimates

CORN             86 Million                  84.5 Million

SOYBEANS       75 Million                  79.6 Million

WHEAT            63 Million                 58.5 Million

GRAIN STOCKS

                      2008                         2009

CORN                   6.859                  7.036

SOYBEANS             1.434                  1.322

WHEAT                   .709                  1.062

Trade Estimates for Friday's Quarterly Hog & Pig Report

Catagory           Trade Estimate           Trade Range

All Hog/Pigs            96.9                96.1 to 98.5

Breedings               97.9                97.0 to 98.5

Marketings             96.8                95.9 to 98.6

In Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed Report....

On Feed 94.7%

Placements 97.4%

Marketings 94.7%

The placement number was below expectations and should be positive for the back months.